After months buried in a downtrend, Helium (HNT) is finally flashing signs of life. Since the end of January, the decentralized wireless network token has been steadily losing ground.
However, April 12 marked a potential turning point, as HNT broke through a key market structure level near $3.40. The move hinted that the bears may have finally exhausted their grip, with bulls stepping in to reclaim momentum.
A Breakout… Followed by Caution
Post-breakout, HNT managed to surge to a local high of $4.50, marking an impressive rebound before retreating back to the $3.40 zone — a nearly 24% pullback. Despite this dip, the overall market structure remains bullish, keeping alive the hope that this may be the early stages of a meaningful uptrend.
For now, Helium is consolidating around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, a critical mid-point that often determines whether bulls are in control or if bears are about to reclaim the stage.
Pressure Points: BTC’s Influence and Fading Volume
As is often the case, Helium’s next move might hinge more on Bitcoin (BTC) than its fundamentals. BTC is battling to confirm a local bottom around the $83,000 mark, and a slip below that could trigger a fresh wave of altcoin selling, dragging HNT down toward key supports at $3.00 and $2.25.
Adding to the uncertainty, Helium’s On-Balance Volume (OBV) — a key metric that tracks buyer interest — has struggled to reclaim its February highs. That signals a lack of conviction among bulls, even as prices attempt to rebound.
Slowing Momentum on Lower Timeframes
Looking at the 4-hour chart, HNT is hitting resistance around $3.70, a zone that’s acted as a key rejection point before. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing signs of weakening, reflecting the bulls’ struggle to maintain upward momentum.
Unless OBV begins to trend higher alongside a decisive breakout above $3.70, Helium risks slipping back into a bearish short-term pattern.
What Traders Should Watch Now
Helium is perched at a crossroads. If BTC can stabilize and Helium breaks cleanly through $3.70 with rising volume, a move toward the $4.50 region is likely. However, if broader market weakness sets in, traders should brace for a retreat toward $2.75–$3.00.
Key takeaway: HNT is setting the stage for a potential rally — but traders should stay sharp, keep an eye on Bitcoin, and track volume signals closely before jumping in.
