Bitcoin continues to defy gravity, trading comfortably above the six-figure milestone and showing signs of both strength and caution.
As of the time of writing, BTC is priced at $104,678 after touching an intraday high of $105,997, extending its run above $100,000 for over a month. Despite intensified sell-offs from long-term holders, market sentiment remains broadly optimistic, at least for now.
The surge, however, may only be the prelude to a much larger move, according to market analyst EGRAG CRYPTO, who suggests that Bitcoin could skyrocket to a peak of $175,231 before facing a sharp correction.
The projection, built on Fibonacci extensions and historical price cycles from 2017 and 2021, has sparked a heated debate across trading circles and crypto forums.
Key Resistance Zones Approaching as Momentum Builds
According to EGRAG’s technical charting, Bitcoin bulls are likely to encounter resistance at $103,225 and $120,239, levels that historically serve as inflection points for trend reversals.
A successful breakout beyond $120K could open the door to a parabolic run toward the forecasted cycle high.
However, the chart also reveals a grim possibility: a dramatic reversal that could send Bitcoin plummeting to as low as $34,000, mirroring previous retracements such as the 2022 decline from $64,000 to $15,600.
EGRAG’s projection includes a 66% correction following the potential peak, consistent with previous bear cycle behavior.
Multiple long-term moving averages currently offer strong support in the mid-range zone, particularly around $85,000 and $76,000, but analysts agree that sustained momentum will be required to breach resistance without triggering a heavy pullback.
Market Liquidity and Leverage Paint Mixed Picture
Data from Coinglass shows Bitcoin’s open interest holding steady at $70.61 billion, just shy of its all-time high. While leverage remains elevated, a 7.34% drop in trading volume signals caution.
Over $31.5 million in long positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours alone, reflecting increased volatility and indecision.
At the same time, options open interest has risen, indicating that traders are increasingly hedging their positions or preparing for short-term turbulence. The balance between futures and options positions will likely dictate the speed and direction of the next major move.
Institutional Activity Remains a Crucial Driver
Bitcoin’s continued rally has been partially fueled by institutional inflows, particularly into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which collectively hold more than $60 billion in assets under management.
According to a recent Bloomberg report, daily ETF inflows have consistently remained in positive territory since early May, suggesting that large funds are still accumulating during pullbacks.
Additionally, analysts point to macroeconomic trends such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in late 2025, which could further support risk assets like Bitcoin in the coming quarters.
The $120K Level: Opportunity or Trap?
While optimism grows, seasoned investors warn of the dangers of overextension. The $120,000 level is increasingly being viewed as a psychological battleground.
A successful breakout could validate bullish projections and trigger widespread FOMO among sidelined investors. On the other hand, failure to clear this barrier may catalyze a wave of sell-offs, pushing Bitcoin into a more severe correction phase.
EGRAG’s forecast may seem bold, but its logic is rooted in Bitcoin’s historical behavior. In both 2013 and 2021, the flagship cryptocurrency posted blow-off tops that were immediately followed by rapid declines, reinforcing the importance of managing risk, particularly at current elevated levels.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s current positioning is a classic example of a market at a crossroads, where upside potential meets historical precedent for volatility.
With key technical levels approaching, ETF flows rising, and macroeconomic signals shifting, the next few weeks could be pivotal in defining whether Bitcoin’s next stop is $175K or a plunge back toward $30K territory.
Investors should remain alert to on-chain signals, open interest shifts, and broader economic indicators as Bitcoin navigates what could be the most critical phase of this cycle.
