Bitcoin is teetering on the edge of a potential major move as investors await the July 15 U.S. inflation report, a key event that could shape Federal Reserve policy and impact risk assets across global markets.
After consolidating in a tight range between $109,000 and $112,000 for more than 230 days, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is forming a technical pattern hinting at an imminent breakout.
Strong U.S. Jobs Data Challenges Fed Rate-Cut Hopes
Last Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report showed the economy added 147,000 jobs in June, beating expectations of 110,000 and keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent.
This stronger-than-expected labor market data briefly pressured Bitcoin prices lower, sending the asset to $109,000 as traders reassessed the likelihood of imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
A robust jobs market suggests persistent economic strength, which could deter the Fed from easing monetary policy quickly. Higher interest rates typically weigh on speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies, by raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding investments like Bitcoin.
Inflation Report Could Trigger Market Shift
Attention now turns to the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Analyst Ran Neuner said that if inflation prints at or below 2.4 percent, it would increase the probability of a Fed rate cut this month, potentially igniting a rally in Bitcoin and risk assets. Conversely, hotter-than-expected inflation could extend the Fed’s hawkish stance, stalling Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, futures markets are currently pricing in roughly a 55 percent chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting, but these odds could shift dramatically depending on July 15’s inflation figures.
Historical Patterns Point to Possible Bitcoin Surge
Crypto analyst platform CryptoCon highlights that prolonged consolidation phases for Bitcoin often precede large upside moves.
Past data shows average gains of around 50 percent after similar periods of stagnation. If Bitcoin repeats this historical pattern, it could rally to between $160,000 and $170,000 within weeks following a breakout.
Additionally, analysis of past halving cycles shows that Bitcoin tends to perform strongly during Q3 of post-halving years. In 2020, Bitcoin surged by 47 percent in Q3, and historical averages suggest potential gains of 45-50 percent during this period.
Ethereum and Altcoins Poised for Wider Market Rally
The broader crypto market is also showing signs of renewed strength. Ethereum recently surpassed $2,625, breaking short-term resistance levels and signaling improving sentiment among altcoin traders.
Should Bitcoin decisively clear resistance near $112,000, analysts expect a spillover effect that could lift the entire digital asset market.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju noted in a recent report that stablecoin inflows into exchanges have spiked over the past week, a typical precursor to large buying activity. This adds to the bullish case if inflation data supports expectations of easier monetary policy.
Key Price Levels and Long-Term Outlook
Short-term technical targets for Bitcoin remain in the $150,000 to $160,000 range, which would represent a 40-50 percent move from current prices if a breakout confirms.
Some long-term bullish analysts continue to speculate about a possible surge to $250,000 by the end of the year, contingent on favorable macroeconomic conditions and sustained institutional interest.
Meanwhile, institutional participation has remained robust. Data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin holdings by long-term investors are at an all-time high, underscoring confidence in the asset despite near-term macroeconomic uncertainty.
