Bitcoin’s ongoing bull market may be approaching its final stages, with leading market watchers signaling that the majority of gains could already be behind.
According to prominent crypto analyst Rekt Capital, nearly 88% of the current Bitcoin cycle is complete, suggesting limited time remains for substantial price appreciation.
Cycle Nears Historical Peak
Bitcoin’s price action since the April 2024 halving has followed historical patterns, with the current bull run already among the longest re-accumulation phases in the asset’s history.
More than a year of sideways price action allowed the market to digest previous gains, but as prices began surging again this year, momentum has noticeably slowed compared to past cycles.
Rekt Capital points to historical data showing that Bitcoin bull markets tend to peak between 500 and 550 days after a halving event. Based on this timeline, Bitcoin’s current cycle could top out between September and October 2025.
“Investors should understand that while short-term upside remains possible, time is running out for outsized returns,” Rekt Capital cautioned on social media, adding that the risk of a significant correction, potentially as deep as 60% to 70%, rises the closer Bitcoin gets to its historical cycle peak.
Near-Term Targets and Key Resistance Levels
Despite the looming macro risk, Bitcoin’s technical structure still supports a bullish outlook in the short term. As of this morning, Bitcoin reached a new local high, continuing its uptrend while holding above the key trendline that has underpinned price support since late May.
According to TradingView data, Bitcoin remains above the critical support level of $105,200. Analysts expect further gains could materialize if the asset can break above resistance in the $110,400 to $113,500 range.
A decisive move beyond this zone may open the door for a rally toward long-standing upside targets between $130,000 and $150,000.
However, several technical analysts emphasize that Bitcoin’s daily structure will remain bullish only if prices stay above $107,280. A sustained break below this level could signal the start of a deeper pullback.
Broader Context: Macro Environment and Institutional Trends
While technical signals remain key, analysts also highlight broader factors that could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. For instance, the potential for interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve later this year could reignite risk-on appetite and drive additional capital into crypto markets.
Conversely, uncertainty around regulatory crackdowns, particularly in the United States and Europe, continues to hang over digital assets.
Data from Glassnode shows that institutional Bitcoin holdings have reached new highs in 2025, driven by ETFs and public company treasuries. Yet, whale wallets, holding more than 1,000 BTC, have shown signs of distribution over the past month, a classic behavior seen near market peaks.
Analysts Urge Caution as Cycle Winds Down
As Bitcoin edges closer to its expected cyclical high, experts urge investors to exercise caution. Historically, late-cycle buying can lead to painful drawdowns once the market reverses.
“While the $130,000 to $150,000 range is a realistic target if momentum continues, investors need to prepare for heightened volatility and be wary of chasing rallies this late in the cycle,” Rekt Capital warned.
