The Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin is headed toward a critical test this week. On Friday, April 18, the project will release 40 million TRUMP tokens into circulation — a staggering $328 million worth, representing 20% of its total circulating supply.
This event is setting the stage for one of the most closely watched market moments in the memecoin sector this month.
With volatility already elevated across crypto markets, this unlock could significantly shake up TRUMP’s price trajectory, particularly after a 30% price decline over the past month. Market participants are bracing for potential turbulence as supply pressure threatens to outpace demand.
Why the April 18 Token Unlock Is a High-Risk Event
Token unlocks can act as double-edged swords for crypto assets, particularly when large percentages of a token’s supply are suddenly made available for trading. In TRUMP’s case, the relatively small current circulating supply means that adding 40 million new tokens could dramatically alter market dynamics.
With a market capitalization of $1.62 billion, this unlock ranks as one of the largest memecoin supply events so far in April. Unless fresh demand materializes quickly, this surge in available tokens could overwhelm existing liquidity, placing downward pressure on TRUMP’s already fragile price structure.
Notably, TRUMP has already endured a 90% decline from its all-time high, and with sentiment fragile, bulls will need to step in aggressively to absorb the new supply and stabilize the market. If they fail, the risk of a deeper correction remains elevated.
On-Chain Data Signals Diminishing Retail Interest
Recent on-chain analytics paint a challenging picture for the TRUMP ecosystem. According to Dune Analytics, the number of unique wallets holding TRUMP has declined significantly, dropping from 817,621 in January to 637,235 as of April.
More revealing is the distribution of value among holders:
- Only around 13,000 wallets currently hold over $1,000 worth of TRUMP
- The majority of holders control smaller, more speculative positions
This erosion in holder base signals dwindling retail enthusiasm — a concerning sign ahead of a major unlock that demands fresh market participation to maintain price levels.
Interestingly, social dominance data from Santiment shows TRUMP chatter has increased to 0.19% of total crypto social discussions.
However, this uptick may reflect speculative hype rather than genuine accumulation, as it coincides with weakening price action — a classic case of bearish divergence where rising attention fails to translate into market strength.
Technical Picture: Bears Retain the Upper Hand
On the technical side, TRUMP is hovering near $8.06, trading just below the upper resistance of a descending triangle pattern on the daily chart. A decisive breakout above this trendline is needed to initiate a bullish reversal — but so far, that momentum hasn’t materialized.
Key indicators highlight ongoing bearish control:
- Awesome Oscillator (AO): Still printing negative values, signaling sustained downside momentum
- Bull Bear Power (BBP): Positioned below zero, indicating sellers remain in charge
If TRUMP fails to breach this overhead resistance in the coming sessions, especially in the face of the April 18 supply surge, prices could tumble toward the $7.00 support region or lower.
Can the Bulls Mount a Last-Minute Comeback?
While the outlook leans bearish, technical setups suggest a possible bullish breakout if TRUMP can close convincingly above the descending triangle’s resistance. In this scenario, the next key target would be around $17.05, aligning with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level drawn from its all-time high.
Such a move would likely require a combination of:
- Improved market sentiment
- Increased staking or lock-up activity
- A surge in trading volume from new investors
Unless these factors emerge quickly, the path of least resistance remains downward, especially as technical signals and on-chain metrics align bearishly heading into the unlock.
Industry Context: Memecoin Sector Faces Mounting Pressure
The looming TRUMP unlock comes at a time when the broader memecoin market is experiencing significant strain. While niche tokens like DOGE and SHIB have struggled to regain momentum, new entrants like FLOKI and WIF have attracted speculative interest, though often with brief, unsustainable rallies.
April 2025 has already seen increased volatility among meme-based assets, as traders shift between tokens seeking quick returns while traditional large-cap cryptocurrencies consolidate.
This dynamic may exacerbate selling pressure for TRUMP, as liquidity and speculative capital scatter across competing memecoins.
Conclusion: A Pivotal Test Ahead
The April 18 TRUMP token unlock could prove to be a defining moment for the memecoin’s future. With $328 million worth of tokens entering the market against the backdrop of weak technical support and declining on-chain engagement, traders should prepare for increased volatility.
Unless bulls can absorb the new supply or drive a technical breakout, the risk of a deeper correction remains significant. The coming days will likely reveal whether TRUMP can stabilize — or if it’s headed for a sharper fall.
