Bitcoin ended the month of July with a historic milestone, closing at an all-time monthly high of $115,000. The leading cryptocurrency added $8,000 over the month, extending a rally that many analysts believe marks the next phase of a prolonged bull market.
The new monthly record builds on a steady uptrend that has been unfolding since early 2024, setting the stage for what some experts describe as a more mature, less volatile market cycle compared to past rallies.
PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow Model Still in Play
Prominent crypto analyst PlanB, known for developing the widely cited Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, affirmed that Bitcoin’s current trajectory continues to align with his long-range projections. The S2F model, which analyzes scarcity by comparing the existing supply of Bitcoin to its rate of production, forecasts an average price target of $500,000 during this cycle, with a potential peak reaching as high as $1 million.
Unlike previous cycles that were marked by rapid surges—such as the 100x move in 2013 or the 10x increase in 2017—this bull run appears to be progressing more gradually. PlanB noted that Bitcoin has already tripled from its cycle lows, suggesting a more sustainable pattern of growth.
He also pointed to changing investor behavior as a contributing factor. A significant share of Bitcoin supply is now being moved into institutional-grade investment vehicles like ETFs and corporate treasuries, a trend that is reducing liquid supply and reinforcing the asset’s long-term appeal. PlanB himself disclosed that he has shifted a portion of his holdings into ETFs for improved custody and portfolio diversification.
On-Chain Data Signals a Lengthening Market Cycle
According to on-chain analytics, the current Bitcoin cycle has already lasted over 18 months and shows no signs of peaking soon. Analysts argue that extended holding behavior and declining exchange balances support the notion of a drawn-out bull phase.
Metrics such as the six-month realized price—now exceeding $100,000 for the first time—further indicate that investor conviction remains high. This metric reflects the average purchase price of coins moved within the last six months and is viewed as a proxy for recent market sentiment.
The aggregate cost basis across holders has also been rising, a signal that new capital is entering at higher levels, reinforcing confidence in the market’s strength.
Technical Indicators Suggest Room for Further Upside
Technical indicators are flashing strong signals. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 72.5, a level that confirms bullish momentum but still leaves room before entering overbought territory. Analysts suggest that a move into the 80s could trigger a more aggressive leg of the rally.
Resistance in the short term is noted at around $116,220. A clean breakout above this level could open the door to $119,200, with the potential to reach as high as $126,000 if momentum persists.
Despite intermittent pullbacks, market structure remains solid. Key support zones around $108,000 have held firm, even during high-volatility sessions, adding to the bullish case for further gains.
Institutional Adoption and Regulatory Shifts Add Tailwinds
Beyond market indicators, institutional interest and evolving regulatory clarity are creating additional catalysts. The U.S. approval of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year has led to billions of dollars in inflows, providing a stable foundation for demand.
Internationally, jurisdictions such as the United Arab Emirates and Singapore continue to attract crypto firms with clear digital asset frameworks. Meanwhile, financial giants including BlackRock, Fidelity, and Morgan Stanley have increased exposure through both custody services and direct investment products.
A New Cycle with Familiar Ambitions
While the path upward may be less explosive than previous rallies, the goalposts remain ambitious. PlanB’s projection of $500,000 per Bitcoin is not universally accepted, but growing consensus suggests that six-figure valuations may become the new norm before the cycle concludes.
For now, Bitcoin’s record-breaking close is both a psychological and technical milestone. As market dynamics shift toward greater institutional participation and longer investment horizons, the prospect of continued upward movement appears increasingly plausible.
