Expectations for a U.S.-listed XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) have soared in the wake of Ripple’s legal win over the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Prediction market data from Polymarket now places the likelihood of SEC approval at 77%, reflecting a surge in investor confidence and renewed optimism for the token’s institutional adoption.
This heightened sentiment comes just months after a landmark court ruling effectively ended the years-long legal battle, removing a major cloud of regulatory uncertainty that had weighed heavily on XRP’s prospects.
XRP Seen Outpacing Ethereum ETF in Market Demand
Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, believes that an XRP ETF could surpass Ethereum ETF demand “with conviction.” Speaking in a recent interview, McClurg argued that XRP’s unique market position — particularly its lack of staking rewards — may play to its advantage.
“Ethereum holders can stake their assets for 2–3% annual rewards, which can make direct ownership more attractive than buying the ETF. XRP doesn’t have that dynamic, so ETF investors aren’t missing out on potential yield,” McClurg explained.
He also pointed to XRP’s dominance in cross-border payments, highlighting its low fees and rapid transaction speeds compared to Ethereum’s congested smart contract network. “This isn’t just about speculation — XRP is already solving real-world problems in international settlements, which is something institutions care about,” he said.
Strong Community Support Could Drive Massive Inflows
McClurg credited XRP’s famously loyal community — known as the “XRP Army” — for creating a foundation of early demand. He suggested that strong retail and institutional backing could generate up to $5 billion in ETF inflows within the first month of launch.
Ripple’s continuous upgrades to its payment infrastructure, coupled with regulatory clarity, have only strengthened the case for XRP in institutional portfolios. With global banks and payment providers already integrated into Ripple’s network, analysts see the ETF as a logical next step in mainstream adoption.
Industry Trends Point Toward Accelerating ETF Approvals
The market momentum for cryptocurrency ETFs has been building since the U.S. approved Bitcoin spot ETFs in early 2024, followed by Ethereum ETFs later in the year. Industry observers note that regulatory agencies have shown increasing willingness to greenlight digital asset funds — provided they meet strict compliance and custody requirements.
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, an XRP ETF would likely benefit from the “spillover effect” of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals, with the SEC under growing pressure to maintain a consistent policy toward other major cryptocurrencies.
Outlook: High Expectations, But Regulatory Uncertainty Remains
While McClurg expressed confidence that the XRP ETF will debut in 2025, he acknowledged that regulatory timelines can be unpredictable. Still, with a clear niche in cross-border payments, an engaged global community, and a high probability of approval, the XRP ETF is being positioned as one of the most impactful launches the crypto market could see this year.
If approval is granted, analysts predict it could spark a new wave of institutional inflows into the XRP ecosystem, potentially boosting both liquidity and price in the months that follow.
